ASSESSMENT OF SPRING REGIONAL RESPONSES OF THE THERMAL REGIME OF THE NORTHWESTERN BLACK SEA REGION TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

The relevance of this study lies in addressing a fundamental scientific issue-examining the dynamics of specific indicators of climate-dependent natural resources to ensure sustainable socio-economic development in Ukraine under global climate change conditions. The North-Western Black Sea region is a leading, highly developed industrial-agricultural area of the country, where information on its thermal regime is crucial, as it constitutes an essential component of natural resources. Given its potential for use in the southern regions of Ukraine, this research focuses on determining temperature indicators that will aid in planning and adapting various economic sectors in southern Ukraine amid regional climate transformations.

The implementation directions of these objectives are formulated within the research projects of the departments of the Faculty of Hydrometeorology and Ecology at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University, including: 'Zoning of Ukraine's territory based on vulnerability to climate change and selection of optimal adaptation pathways.' (No. DR0125U001204). The underestimation of certain aspects of the dynamics of regional climate temperature characteristics in the context of global climate change has resulted in these aspects remaining insufficiently studied to date.

Analysis of previous research it proves the importance of studying the climatic indicators of the temperature regime of the North-Western Black Sea region, which is a leading highly developed industrial-agricultural region of Ukraine. The underestimation of certain aspects of the dynamics of climatic characteristics of the regional climate in the context of global climate change has led to these aspects being still insufficiently studied today.

This article aims (using the Odessa station as an example) to present the results of a physical-statistical approach to determining regional responses in the main indicators of the temperature regime of the North-Western Black Sea region to the changes occurring in the climate system of the present period. The implementation of the physical-statistical approach was conducted using classical methods of statistical and graphical analysis.

Based on long-term empirical data for 1909 spring days of the period 2001-2023, the dynamics of interdaily variability of air temperature was analyzed and the number of days with average daily air temperature in different gradations was determined. Comparing the two periods of the 21st century, it was determined that in March from the first (2001-2010) to the second (2013-2023) the number of days with average daily air temperature in the range from 5.1 to 15.0°C increases sharply: from 43.2% to 62.1% of days; not a single case with a temperature above 15.0°C was recorded in the first decade of the 21st century, unlike the period 2013-2023; the number of days with an air temperature of zero degrees and below decreased by 2.3%. In April, in the period 2001-2023, the air temperature ranged from 5.1 to 15.0°C and accounted for 88.7%. In the last month of spring, the number of days with an average daily temperature in the range from 10.1°C to 20.0°C increased by 1.4%: from 84.8% to 86.2%, but the indicator with a temperature in the range of 20.1-25.0°C decreased by 0.3%. In April and May of the last decade, no cases with an air temperature of zero degrees and below were recorded. The frequency of the average daily air temperature in higher temperature ranges increased, which indicates warmer springs, compared to the 20th century.

The obtained results provide a basis for analyzing the dynamics of regional climate changes in the context of global climate change. The rational and timely application of the climate information presented in this article will contribute to the development of effective adaptation pathways, which, in turn, will make a significant contribution to ensuring the sustainable development of Ukraine. Future tasks will focus on researching the thermal regime indicators of other stations in the North-Western Black Sea region, involving additional empirical data.