STATISTICAL METHODS IN RIVER WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE

S. M. Yurasov; V. V. Terzeman

doi:10.32782/uhj.34-35.2025.12

S. M. Yurasov Odesa I. I. Mechnikov National University, 2 Vsevoloda Zmiienka Street, Odesa 65082, Ukraine
V. V. Terzeman Odesa I. I. Mechnikov National University, 2 Vsevoloda Zmiienka Street, Odesa 65082, Ukraine

DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/uhj.34-35.2025.12

Keywords: water quality assessment, maximum allowable discharge, background characteristics, EU directives, water quality forecasting

Abstract

The study is devoted to the development of scientifically grounded recommendations for integrating the requirements of the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) and River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs) into the process of calculating the maximum allowable discharges of pollutants from wastewater using current national methodologies. The Danube River basin is considered as an example based on monitoring data from 2015-2024. Special attention is paid to the assessment and forecasting of water quality, which are key elements of the water quality regulation procedure.

The study analyzes the water legislation of the European Union countries regarding the assessment of surface water quality. According to the provisions of the WFD and at the initial stage of RBMPs, the water quality in a water body over a certain past period is considered compliant with EU standards if the probability of exceeding the normative values (assurance level) for each indicator does not exceed a specified limit, F. Based on this, it is proposed to carry out regulation, as well as the associated assessment and forecasting of surface water quality, using indicators with assurance level F. This approach ensures alignment of national methodologies for these calculations with EU legislative requirements. The proposed provisions were tested using the analysis of temporal variability of water quality indicators in the Danube river. It was shown that when using average values of indicators, the WFD and RBMP requirements are often not met because the assurance level of these values can significantly exceed the established limits for the frequency of MAC exceedances. To gradually achieve “good status” of surface water bodies according to the WFD and RBMPs, it is advisable to use values of indicators with assurance levels of 10%, 5%, and 2.5% as the design (background) values when regulating pollutant discharges from wastewater. In addition, when temporal trends of indicators are present, their values should be forecasted to ensure compliance with the WFD requirements, especially in the case of positive trends.

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