DEPENDENCE OF MAXIMUM ICE EXTENT IN THE DAVIS STRAIT AND THE LABRADOR SEA WITH ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE AND SURFACE WIND SPEED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE ARCTIC OCEANS

Abstract

The Arctic region has undergone unprecedented climate changes over recent decades, with air temperatures there rising much more significantly than in other parts of the globe. This phenomenon has been termed "Arctic amplification." Alongside other consequences, it has triggered a rapid reduction in ice cover, including within the Northwest Passage, which under modern conditions is set to play an increasingly important role in global shipping. Considering global trends in maritime logistics—evidenced by declining throughput in the Panama Canal (due to significant climate-driven shallowing) and the Red Sea (due to military actions)—the passage emerges as a promising new route that significantly reduces transport distances between North America, Europe, and East Asia. Therefore, issues regarding ice regime dynamics in the Davis Strait and the Labrador Sea, where the route to the Pacific Ocean begins, carry significant importance. Ice melting stems primarily from meteorological conditions. These include such interrelated quantities as surface wind speed and sea-level atmospheric pressure. Horizontal pressure gradients Залежність максимального розповсюдження криги в протоці Дейвіса і морі Лабрадор з атмосферним тиском і швидкістю приземного вітру в північній частині Атлантичного океану та Північному Льодовитому океані determine the parameters of airflows, which in turn can cause heat advection or enhance ice drift, contributing to its fragmentation and the formation of open water. Open water, in turn, absorbs more solar radiation, intensifying local heating and subsequent melting. This work uses statistical analysis as its methodological basis to determine the pronounced dependence between the maximum ice extent in the Davis Strait and the Labrador Sea and these two factors. In accordance with the set objective, this study identifies correlations between a quasi-stationary time series of ice extent anomalies as of April 15 for the period 1979–2023 (obtained from the authors' previous research) and the monthly mean series of sea-level atmospheric pressure and wind speed at a 10 m height. The calculations were performed incrementally for 10° to 0.5° squares and for specific points in the North Atlantic and its surrounding continental areas, as well as for Greenland, the Canadian Arctic, and a small region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Based on the calculation results, the study describes the features of the spatio-temporal distribution of correlation coefficients and identifies regions and points where these coefficients reach extreme values. The obtained data create a foundation for enabling further prediction of ice extent in the Davis Strait and the Labrador Sea, aiming to prolong the navigation season and enhance maritime safety within the context of modern realities.