AGROCLIMATIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF SPRING FROSTS FOR FRUIT CROPS IN THE TRANSCARPATHIAN REGION UNDER MODERN CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

Агрокліматична оцінка ризику весняних заморозків для плодових культур у Закарпатській області в умовах сучасної зміни клімату This study addresses the urgent issue of adapting industrial fruit growing to the transforming climatic regime in the Transcarpathian region. The research focuses on analyzing risks arising from spring frosts with intensities down to -2°C, which are critical for fruit trees during the flowering phase. The study covers a long-term observation period from 2001 to 2025, allowing for the identification of stable trends in the region's thermal regime changes. We have established that global warming creates a paradoxical situation for Transcarpathian horticulture. On one hand, there is an increase in the sum of active temperatures; on the other hand, there remains a consistently high frequency of late spring frosts. The research indicates that the onset dates of the flowering phase for pome and stone fruits are shifting to earlier dates. At the same time, the dates of the last spring frosts do not show a proportional shift toward the beginning of spring. This leads to a critical reduction in the "phenological safety interval," defined here as the time gap between the last critical temperature drop and the onset of mass flowering. We identified significant spatial differentiation in agroclimatic risks depending on elevation and topographical features. The most threatening situation is characteristic of mountainous areas, particularly according to data from the Nyzhni Vorota meteorological station, where the amplitude of safety interval fluctuations is maximal. The study assessed the impact of warming on specific crop types. We established that apricot is the most vulnerable crop, as its flowering phase in most studied years completely coincides with the period of probable frosts. Comparative analysis showed that the apple tree is the most adapted to modern conditions, maintaining a more stable safety interval due to later vegetation stages. Conversely, plum and sweet cherry demonstrate a trend toward the convergence of flowering dates with the last frost dates, increasingly leading these crops into a "frost trap" and resulting in partial or total crop loss. The results obtained characterize the patterns of degradation in the temporal resources for safe horticultural development. We have proven that minimizing yield losses requires a revision of orchard placement strategies and the implementation of active protection methods, such as artificial fogging systems and wind machines. This work confirms the hypothesis regarding the necessity of microclimatic zoning for the effective management of high-risk agricultural production.