SEASONAL COMPONENT OF THE MORTALITY RISK AMONG THE POPULATION OF UKRAINE FROM DISEASES OF THE CIRCULATORY SYSTEM

Abstract

An important feature of population mortality in different countries of the world is the seasonal component. This means that in the cold period of the year, the number of deaths increases compared to the warm period. Such a phenomenon is almost never described in domestic scientific publications, but it found important confirmation in the research of foreign authors. The presented study is dedicated to the study and statistical confirmation of the seasonal component of the indicator of the number of deaths from diseases of the circulatory system against the background of mortality from all causes, as well as the determination of the risks of excess mortality due to the role of the seasonal factor. To realize the goal of the study, the time series of the number of deaths of the population from all causes and from diseases of the circulatory system (including 2 nosological forms of this class of diseases) was analyzed, first graphically, and then statistically confirmed the presence of the main period of 12 months. Confirmation of the presence of this period of population mortality made it possible to assess such characteristics of environmental risk as the odds ratio and the relative risk of excess mortality of the population of Ukraine in the winter period compared to the summer period. Graphical, statistical (correlation analysis and Fourier analysis) and matrix (construction and analysis of conjugation tables) research methods were widely used in the conducted research. The results of the work were estimates of odds ratios (6.7-26.2% for all causes of death, 8.5- 26.7% for diseases of the circulatory system, 8.1-31.4% for іschaemic heart diseases, 10.2-26.3% for cerebrovascular diseases) and relative risk (6.2-26.1% for all causes of death, 8.2-26.6% for diseases of the circulatory system, 8.1-31.1% for ischaemic heart diseases, 10.2-26.3% for cerebrovascular diseases) of excess mortality of the population in winter compared to the summer period. The obtained results indicate that the environmental risks of excess mortality of the population of Ukraine are mainly determined by the corresponding characteristics of the risks from diseases of the circulatory system against the background of a whole complex of environmental factors that are typical for the cold period of the year.